Note: This is the first in a series of papers published by Revoltura, sponsor of the Bitcoin ETI.
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- Bitcoin price: €586* (as of June 28, 2016)
- Market cap: €9.2B* (as of June 28, 2016)
- Average daily trading volume: €150M*
*You can see the daily metrics at BitcoinWisdom
- Total wallets: 12 million wallets total (5 million new users 2015)
- Bitcoins mined: 15M bitcoins mined so far (all 21M will be mined by 2041)
Bitcoin and blockchain adoption metrics
- In 2015, there were a 100% increase in the number of new bitcoin wallets and bitcoin ATMs compared to 2014.
- Exchange trading volume was four times greater in Q4 2015 than in Q4 2015.
- Bitcoin is mainstreaming, as more and more merchants are accepting bitcoin, with an estimated 150,000 merchants for 2016.
- The number of bitcoin wallets is expected to reach 16 million by 2016.
- The volume of daily bitcoin transactions has increased tremendously with +81% growth in 2015.
Bitcoin price drivers
Based on our research, we believe that bitcoin can grow exponentially over the next coming years.
The main drivers of the bitcoin price growth are the following:
- China’s weakening economics and its ripple effect on Asian financial sector
- China’s devaluation of yuan makes bitcoin attractive “way to store value”
- China’s capital controls make bitcoin a key to investing abroad
- Already the majority of bitcoins are traded against yuan
- Chinese government has taken a sensitive “hands-off” approach to bitcoin, letting bitcoin exchanges and mining companies grow
- China’s Sina media coverage of bitcoin has been increasing steadily +42% YoY
- World has 2.5 billion unbanked adults, many of them own a mobile phone
- Remittance industry is about $500Bn. Western Union’s average charge is 6.5% - “tax on poor people”
- Countries like Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Nigeria are suffering hyperinflation and/or monetary restrictions and bitcoin offers alternative store of value
- Blockchain technology solves a counterparty risk as digital assets can be traded in real-time without central authority - creating a “Internet-of-Value”
- Nasdaq has already executed its first “crypto trades” on its Private Markets-platform
- Over 40 large banks have joined consortium called R3cev, that builds blockchain based solutions for financial institutions - they have tested a large scale bond trading over five different shared-ledger solutions
- Besides banking, blockchain will disrupt many sectors like Real Estate, Health, Law, Retail
- The technology will also power Internet-Of-Things, managing user rights of internet connected applications
Bitcoin’s Issuance Mechanics
- Already 73% of all bitcoins have been minted, thus bitcoins will be more and more scarce meanwhile mainstreaming
- Bitcoin block size increase will slow down the rhythm of newly issued coin
- The decrease of the reward per block, from 25 to 12.5 BTC/block, should also sustain the price of bitcoin
- UK Government’s considers that cryptocurrencies do not need specific regulation and are not subject to VAT
- No European Union level legislation yet, ECJ ruled bitcoin was not subject to VAT
- In the USA, New York has BitLicense for bitcoin exchanges companies
- US Commodity Futures Trading Commission considers bitcoin is commodity
- Hong Kong is not planning to create a specific regulation
- Chinese Government Cyberspace Administration has recently recognised Bitcoin Benefits
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